tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-54922835354529335382024-03-12T23:09:49.620-07:00TornadoBlog.orgSevere storm research and photos.John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.comBlogger124125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-23533868798419064842015-01-16T16:24:00.002-08:002015-01-16T16:26:02.036-08:00Tribute Gathering<h2>
A Tribute to Thom Trimble---A Gathering of Friends</h2>
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Tentatively scheduled 6PM Sunday March 29, 2015 </h3>
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(Details will be posted on this blog as the planning proceeds)</h4>
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Today, January 16, 2015, we said goodbye to my lifelong friend Thom Trimble, at a wonderful Life Celebration in Walnut Creek, CA. It was difficult for all of us. Most difficult for Mary and his daughters, and for his brother, sister, and parents.</div>
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What made it more manageable for me was the presence and strength of <a class="profileLink" data-hovercard="/ajax/hovercard/user.php?id=1469616248" href="https://www.facebook.com/tim.ault.71" style="color: #3b5998; cursor: pointer; text-decoration: none;">Tim Ault</a> alongside, and of my sister, Arlene Margetich and brother-in-law Larry Margetich, all of whom showed respect and support. It was hard to say goodbye to Thom...and, yet, I<span class="text_exposed_show" style="display: inline;"> know he believed in moving along. We talked about this very thing in the times we spent together.</span></div>
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I am organizing a tribute gathering for Thom's running and storm chasing friends, and family, tentatively scheduled for March 29. This is dependent on my securing a reservation at Sequoia Lodge in Oakland. I will post details here on FB, and correspond to many of Thom's running and storm chasing friends privately.</div>
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John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-63344148157115966432015-01-07T14:38:00.004-08:002015-01-08T21:22:14.839-08:00Thom Trimble, Rest In Peace<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9B3k0TI1xt9F4FYFkUUbdFNFS-JzupZKF8RSO5SEFQjs2B_AGa4N6YI7DAr9AYG0d6faws_FJlwWxki7E05tImzhe0eNVTrtUpwcNegM306jThViAjiVFRNd6nm1DCOHvs4fGeBZBqTo/s1600/10378545_10205796207131463_1127314885963877897_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><br /></a>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; line-height: 18px;">A Light Has Gone Out</span></h2>
<span style="color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;">Thom Trimble, my best friend of many years, whom I have known since 1981, passed away January 3, 2015 at the age of 55. He died in the midst of doing one of the things he loved the most, running. Of course, this is the biggest blow to his wife, Mary Lothrop Trimble, to his two children, Carolina and Jacqueline, his brother and sister, Lynn and Rebecca, his parents Jerry and Jackie, and to his former wife Laurie Matthews.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; text-align: center;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">The loss of Thom is devastating to me personally. His absence will leave a gap that never can be filled. He was a constant support, a running mentor, a partner in storm chasing, and in the running clubs we founded. </span></span><br />
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;">T</span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px; text-align: center;">hom, I hope you have peace at this moment and forever. You loved and were loved. Many people will be affected by your absence. Rest in peace, my dear friend.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">I am not sure what will happen to this blog in the future, now that Thom is gone. <i><b>Chasing Storks </b></i>was his creation and it will be laid to rest with him. Also, </span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">r</span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">ight now, it is difficult to consider storm chasing without him. But Thom would want people to move on, so I suppose I will have a change of heart at some point</span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;">.</span><span style="color: #141823; font-family: Helvetica, Arial, lucida grande, tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"> </span><span style="line-height: 18px;"> But it will be difficult, and sad.</span></span><br />
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In Memoriam (for Thom)</h4>
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With you a part of me hath passed away;</div>
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For in the peopled forest of my mind<br />
A tree made leafless by this wintry wind </div>
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<span class="text_exposed_show" style="display: inline;">Shall never don again its green array.<br />Chapel and fireside, country road and bay,<br />Have something of their friendliness resigned;<br />Another, if I would, I could not find,<br />And I am grown much older in a day.<br />But yet I treasure in my memory<br />Your gift of charity, and young hearts ease,<br />And the dear honour of your amity;<br />For these once mine, my life is rich with these.<br />And I scarce know which part may greater be,--<br />What I keep of you, or you rob from me. </span><br />
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="display: inline;"><br /></span>
<span class="text_exposed_show" style="display: inline;">George Santayana</span></div>
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John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-87929999942278780162013-06-04T13:24:00.000-07:002013-06-04T13:24:11.008-07:00Tragic Loss of Three Colleagues....May 31, 2013
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<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicFa-ROX9mZpZdtnwrmbbyExRHtKoGFgoYgixe2ZuvpL-gsu2ndAN6azBN2BRFUxrfmKVZV66TnC6YCxzb0Kp3HJyaHE6QOyw5rQ6BDl2Uhvbxfy4paTINbsQO9fH01hYJE7o0MPKYBLA/s1600/abcnews.com-tim_samaras_paul_samaras_carl_young_split_jt_130602_wg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="225" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEicFa-ROX9mZpZdtnwrmbbyExRHtKoGFgoYgixe2ZuvpL-gsu2ndAN6azBN2BRFUxrfmKVZV66TnC6YCxzb0Kp3HJyaHE6QOyw5rQ6BDl2Uhvbxfy4paTINbsQO9fH01hYJE7o0MPKYBLA/s400/abcnews.com-tim_samaras_paul_samaras_carl_young_split_jt_130602_wg.jpg" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">(L to R) Tim Samaras, Paul Samaras and Carl Young.</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTDc1YjifHX8nZskXthUIGNldA7KTWxV2fURYl9I-b7oAUx4yXILoe-V_86tx5Y6b_VqJTTMSx55oLLLeSJc3Y205GNqUEgTCo0AMCo2wQS8PjDZbjj1_sZBnQJSScWP5odBysCWdtpEc/s1600/576830_10201269761133142_1065394281_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTDc1YjifHX8nZskXthUIGNldA7KTWxV2fURYl9I-b7oAUx4yXILoe-V_86tx5Y6b_VqJTTMSx55oLLLeSJc3Y205GNqUEgTCo0AMCo2wQS8PjDZbjj1_sZBnQJSScWP5odBysCWdtpEc/s400/576830_10201269761133142_1065394281_n.jpg" width="400" /></a><span style="font-family: Cambria;">By now, all have heard the
appalling news that storm researchers Tim Samaras, his son Paul, and Carl Young
lost their lives while studying the tornadic supercell thunderstorm that struck
the Oklahoma City area on Friday May 31, 2013.</span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">Tim and Carl were my colleagues
and seasoned meteorologists involved in TWISTEX (Tactical Weather Instrumented
Sampling in/near Tornadoes Experiment) whose mission it is to sample aspects of
the environment near tornadoes. I’ve
known them for years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">I have been involved in storm
research and/or the storm chasing community since 1985. In this 28 year span, there had not been a
death and I know of no injuries among meteorologists studying tornadic storms,
until now. It will be several days
before the exact circumstances of this tragic loss become clear. But even before the storm that ravaged the
El Reno and Union City, OK areas occurred, many questions appeared in the media
about storm chasing, or storm observing in the field.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">Reducing this issue down to its
core, emergency management personnel complain that storm chasers are clogging
roads and making it difficult for first responders to reach victims. This issue came to a head in Ellsworth
County KS April 14, 2012 as an EF4-rated tornado approached Salina.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;"> </span><span style="font-family: Cambria; text-align: center;">Whether it is true that storm
chasers did indeed impede traffic in that and other cases, it’s clear that the
number of chasers out on the roads has dramatically increased in the last
decade.</span><span style="font-family: Cambria; text-align: center;"> </span><span style="font-family: Cambria; text-align: center;">And some of these people engage
in foolhardy and dangerous behavior.</span><span style="font-family: Cambria; text-align: center;"> </span><span style="font-family: Cambria; text-align: center;">The
question is “why?”</span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">From my perspective, as a
professor of meteorology, the term “storm chasing” means what it always has
meant to atmospheric scientists who study storms in the field. It means interweaving meteorological
reasoning and forecasting skills for the purpose of understanding severe
thunderstorms in general, and tornadic supercells in particular.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">It’s enough to say that the early
forays of meteorologists studying severe storms in the field in the 1960s and
1970s continued into the 1980s, and 1990s.
Eventually, their missions split into two tracks. On the one hand, in the middle to late 1990s
and early 2000s large National Science Foundation-funded projects like VORTEX
(Verification of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment), STEPS (Severe Thunderstorm
Electrification and Precipitation Study), TWISTEX and others involved field
efforts bringing many research meteorologists and instrument platforms into the
field to surround tornadic supercells or severe thunderstorms. I was involved at a minor level in the first
and more actively in the second.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">The second track relates to more
of what I do as a meteorologist.
Initially, I was drawn to study these storms because they happen in
California too. So, since I am a weather
forecaster by training, what better way to understand how weather patterns
contribute to the ingredients of severe storms than by immersing myself in a
large “inquiry-based” personal research experience?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">In my case, bringing this
knowledge of ingredients, burned into my psyche by having to forecast them,
back to California has helped meteorologists there understand the patterns that
are liable to produce favorable conditions for tornadic supercells. Other meteorologist chasers have their own set
of predetermined goals in observing storms in the field. All of us are admittedly united in a
fascination with these storms.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">What is important to note is that
no matter what their mission, meteorologists studying storms in the field
contribute to the storm observing process.
All my colleagues who do this have ways of contacting the National
Weather Service quickly when tornadoes are forming. This has led to an increase in the warning
time. For example, such observations
were a key in preventing injuries and loss of life for the Greensburg KS
tornado on May 4, 2007.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">In 1996, the film “Twister” popularized
the notion of chasing storms to immerse oneself in a tornado’s circulation. The
film’s chase teams were loosely based upon the fleets of vehicles called
“Mobile Mesonets” in project VORTEX and the early chase forays by the National
Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) and Oklahoma University.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">Except it was based upon a
fiction: that meteorologists purposefully drive into tornadoes. That fiction, I
believe, has combined with the trend in society for “extreme” behavior. This has encouraged literally hordes of
non-meteorologists many of whom who do not understand storm structure or
behavior, carrying cellular phone cameras into the field. This extreme behavior
is exemplified by cable network programs extolling groups of chasers who drive
vehicles that resemble Flash Gordon/Emperor Ming the Merciless’s space ship
into the path of tornadoes, screaming “tornado, tornado”.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">What does this have to do with
Friday’s tragedy?<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">There were many chasers in the
field that day. A radar plot taken around
6:11 PM CDT about the time that a multiple vortex tornado was on the groundshows
dozens of red dots representing storm chasers or spotters or researchers who
were reporting their positions.
Undoubtedly there were many more.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
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<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVO5_MP4LUwqVkROniqif0z7_IjbBhfHlD4uY_TVeQsWOUkxosj3TBsFZ2qvizaoHpso7K6-LmcZogWPSozh2TP7SAOx0EXdw6YQfvs0vmfXLSj-9SfizsPfYngcINSrvyKVw2ruST7nE/s1600/KTTLX.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; font-family: Cambria; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="382" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiVO5_MP4LUwqVkROniqif0z7_IjbBhfHlD4uY_TVeQsWOUkxosj3TBsFZ2qvizaoHpso7K6-LmcZogWPSozh2TP7SAOx0EXdw6YQfvs0vmfXLSj-9SfizsPfYngcINSrvyKVw2ruST7nE/s400/KTTLX.jpg" width="400" /></a><span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">Most of the meteorologists I know
who were out in the field that day are represented by the dots south and east
of the storm circulation. Many of them
contributed useful information to the National Weather Service in the form of
eyewitness accounts of the tornado formation, that were not able to be detected
by the NWS radars in the Oklahoma City area.
Some of them were on instrumented vehicles that included mobile Doppler
Radar that also contributed to the excellent warnings issued for that tornado.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;"> Most left the area when the storm’s circulation got
so intense that visibility became an issue.
They also navigated away from Oklahoma City so as not to clog roads at
commute time, or to contribute to the chaos that would develop there if a
tornado went into that heavily urbanized area.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">In the coming days, we’ll learn
more about the decisions that Tim’s group made that day. It could be that he took some calculated
chances and was caught by the rapid northward motion of the tornado. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">It would be a double tragedy if
his memory is besmirched by an assumption the he was seeking thrills or
personal publicity. He wasn’t. He was an active researcher contributing to
our knowledge.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<br /></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">But the fact remains that to
Emergency Management personnel a chaser is a chaser, whether he/she is a
meteorologist or not. While it’s clear
that meteorologists who chase know how not to interfere or know how to keep
major road stems free of traffic, it’s not clear that others do. This is an important issue that the storm
research/chaser/spotter community must face in the upcoming years.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoPlainText">
<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;">Rest in peace, Tim, Paul and Carl.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Cambria; mso-ascii-theme-font: major-latin; mso-hansi-theme-font: major-latin;"><br /></span></div>
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<br /></div>
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<br /></div>
<!--EndFragment-->John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-78022854713997547822013-05-25T14:03:00.002-07:002013-05-29T10:34:10.059-07:00Storm Retrospective: Kinsley/Rozel Tornadoes, May 18, 2013<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjylTAMRHeLd1ImzsowmklG8VPBti0kW3d0L0PGPuGjFXMT_pi_58R1QFx6IAByOvW-GpQkumofTZs7ZTyjyz2At5SDljpBMsTGRa0gfXV1x0cVVFrcF43vhMU3yZBzdzRy5MvQYQ-5-W0/s1600/John_Rozel.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="font-family: Times; font-size: medium; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="218" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjylTAMRHeLd1ImzsowmklG8VPBti0kW3d0L0PGPuGjFXMT_pi_58R1QFx6IAByOvW-GpQkumofTZs7ZTyjyz2At5SDljpBMsTGRa0gfXV1x0cVVFrcF43vhMU3yZBzdzRy5MvQYQ-5-W0/s320/John_Rozel.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">John Monteverdi</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw0Q-jweVoKc1x_WbulLkE1HRtLQCMiuJ0hY8sI5iXOFnN7D7G2yOMI13gqoxVif6GK6jDUXQh9fpyrvshRNrKLXMP_KszPI1MSuwtS1CZ-U-e3E_5iagZ7MVobeKLL3dLilQp805GglI/s1600/Thom_Rozel.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiw0Q-jweVoKc1x_WbulLkE1HRtLQCMiuJ0hY8sI5iXOFnN7D7G2yOMI13gqoxVif6GK6jDUXQh9fpyrvshRNrKLXMP_KszPI1MSuwtS1CZ-U-e3E_5iagZ7MVobeKLL3dLilQp805GglI/s320/Thom_Rozel.JPG" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Thom Trimble </td></tr>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 13px; line-height: 18px; text-align: left;">All images copyright © John Monteverdi and Thom Trimble</span><br />
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The storm that eventually produced at least two major tornadoes near Rozel, KS formed southwest of Kinsley, KS at around 6:45 PM CDT. </div>
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The storm developed, we believe, in a narrow slot of inflow air that had about 3F higher dew points and slightly lower temperatures than did the surrounding air being ingested by storms further north and south. I've drawn an arrow on the 2100 UTC surface chart to show the flow of air into the storm genesis area. Note that the dew points on the upstream portion of the arrow are in the 70s.</div>
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I wish I could say I had foreseen that narrow jet of air. But I hadn't. It's that kind of mesoscale detail that cannot be forecast in advance. And the luck here was that we were in the exact position at which that kind of feature could really cause explosive development of a storm. It certainly did in this case.</div>
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The storm immediately had a bell shaped lowering (see image to bottom center). Within in a few minutes it had a very good visual appearance with a rain core out to its northeast and something like an RFD cut developing too.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEht4QkCuzwGjG-65N8tXlRwBeVQ8nVugbz5ZnaycVMquYhpe6T9nHFC38MJnmFZnXxFQ-uJ7DSAhmrORsMYfZ7zI4YNyzWbRkGftTT9Uu1WnRi1eMQd0ebWCX8ws7FfVYpqVrKzyVq3Z-E/s1600/sfc_ict_2013051821.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="504" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEht4QkCuzwGjG-65N8tXlRwBeVQ8nVugbz5ZnaycVMquYhpe6T9nHFC38MJnmFZnXxFQ-uJ7DSAhmrORsMYfZ7zI4YNyzWbRkGftTT9Uu1WnRi1eMQd0ebWCX8ws7FfVYpqVrKzyVq3Z-E/s640/sfc_ict_2013051821.gif" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px; text-align: center;">Arrow indicates approximate path of what we think<br />
was a moist inflow jet that the storm intercepted.</td></tr>
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<span style="text-align: center;"><br /></span><span style="text-align: center;"><span style="text-align: -webkit-auto;">We stayed with this storm for an hour or so and during that time were treated to an absolutely fabulous example of a storm proceeding through the supercell cascade. While the storm was about 5 miles west of us, the southeast winds really kidked up a notch....probably 20-30 mph. We believe that the inflow jet, as explained above, was being intercepted by the storm. I got a dewpoint of 70.8F on my Kestrel and a temperature of 84F. We commented that it was hard to figure why the storm had such a high base and no wall cloud. </span> </span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaFfWDy3FYtlUaj01WB6VDpBYwIXBlZDRNQbgA54i4-J3BEx9heErTHVbefrUBro_WYXDQj9sV1W4UuALQzXZUdjmf3upgeWBlI_N3si1itN4F8_apjBlhg7ss_86FO8XIGz2F3Qz_Txo/s1600/BellShapedLowering.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgaFfWDy3FYtlUaj01WB6VDpBYwIXBlZDRNQbgA54i4-J3BEx9heErTHVbefrUBro_WYXDQj9sV1W4UuALQzXZUdjmf3upgeWBlI_N3si1itN4F8_apjBlhg7ss_86FO8XIGz2F3Qz_Txo/s320/BellShapedLowering.jpg" width="320" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Bell shaped lowering on rapidly developing storm<br />
west of Kinsley KS. </td></tr>
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<span style="text-align: center;">Shortly after the development of that inflow jet, though, the storm base l</span><span style="text-align: center;">owered and the RFD slot sharpened. The updraft area showed signs of bvecoming an RFD occlusion...and, then a nub formed on the north side of the horeshoe base (see picture below) </span><span style="text-align: center;">That rapidly descended visually and became a large tornado, somewhere between a wedge and cone.</span></div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinn-rqfAzV_2HjScUc44OBuXfnvt2LQDeZa-zp65zDv6t2-nMkVkkP_HmmLihyphenhyphenvskmq9RkCnmxP6mBexxQ6PXxQKHmKPqCgUe4klmHa_GInHUkhThs-gjW-0DwsyBWMGtMnyRlbnQylPU/s1600/HoreshoeBaseNub.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEinn-rqfAzV_2HjScUc44OBuXfnvt2LQDeZa-zp65zDv6t2-nMkVkkP_HmmLihyphenhyphenvskmq9RkCnmxP6mBexxQ6PXxQKHmKPqCgUe4klmHa_GInHUkhThs-gjW-0DwsyBWMGtMnyRlbnQylPU/s640/HoreshoeBaseNub.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Horeshoe base, showing rear flank downdraft cut, and developing cloud base circulation <br />
(the nub above the centered tree). </td></tr>
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<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">About 2 minutes after previous image. Tornado circulation now developing at ground level.</td></tr>
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<tr><td><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYYFc6OCgIi7F5gEFQSfJh1iUhMgPs-QPC-edpyQycqo5_UuVEv5dSHaYhaxzAzvXGNnYXeiZ1Z1MYKcwiR-WQugeQha6ZLx8iCZ4SJYg5LyLzmrx-MykQ7MQ4vrxB4NmC1UcEJyKEfaI/s1600/Cone.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="476" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYYFc6OCgIi7F5gEFQSfJh1iUhMgPs-QPC-edpyQycqo5_UuVEv5dSHaYhaxzAzvXGNnYXeiZ1Z1MYKcwiR-WQugeQha6ZLx8iCZ4SJYg5LyLzmrx-MykQ7MQ4vrxB4NmC1UcEJyKEfaI/s640/Cone.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px;">This is the instant of initial contact of the tornado with the ground. It's zoomed, but you can see the same trees and farm buildings that are to the left of the distant forming funnel in the picture above.</td></tr>
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<span style="text-align: center;">The good news is that we got great digital stills of the whole thing, and also video. The bad news is that things happened so quickly that I never had an opportunity to setup the good video camera on a tripod. </span>Nevertheless, I have video documentaiton of the first tornado development on the lowered base. <br />
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<span style="text-align: center;">The radar below shows the storm when the tornado cycled up to its strongest. Our position is shown as the yellow circle. The names plotted there are the other chasers and storm spotters who were reporting their positions. The purple triangle is a Tornado Vortex Signature.</span><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_sjLqfKT_fJZPqapQfaTYRaKm_XEtVYQ4sszg2WWCiO2CoaDfrKSOdoRkc1aOCYMpQExOyUV5ImPfdSkbcIt1BsfrpDse3ILERS7IUS-AXJ5LhV5LIiO9FHBLb11S8A0Fs_g5wBg_rgQ/s1600/Tornado.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="361" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg_sjLqfKT_fJZPqapQfaTYRaKm_XEtVYQ4sszg2WWCiO2CoaDfrKSOdoRkc1aOCYMpQExOyUV5ImPfdSkbcIt1BsfrpDse3ILERS7IUS-AXJ5LhV5LIiO9FHBLb11S8A0Fs_g5wBg_rgQ/s640/Tornado.png" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">GRLevel3 Radar Plot of Kinsley/Rozel storm at time of tornado genesis. Our location shown as yellow circle. The magenta triangle is not the tornado but a radar signature called Tornado Vortex Signature. (Time shown is PDT)</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnG9v-pJCXLYxfGey_Bvaz4kO2GYxfwl2zJYuY5Nh-HcvVdeKWAfLKiNKCH_FxKhmzUvF478xa8vxU5cghtUFu-yFc85jZIb4_pNv0yXvWs6q3f1czWd4niAg4CBHCWS5k4TEmQel_jQo/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-05-22+at+9.37.42+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhnG9v-pJCXLYxfGey_Bvaz4kO2GYxfwl2zJYuY5Nh-HcvVdeKWAfLKiNKCH_FxKhmzUvF478xa8vxU5cghtUFu-yFc85jZIb4_pNv0yXvWs6q3f1czWd4niAg4CBHCWS5k4TEmQel_jQo/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-05-22+at+9.37.42+AM.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Tornado damage (blue and yellow..estimated by <br />
ground survey; red estimated by DOWS)<br />
(Image courtesy of NWS)</td></tr>
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The tornado moved northeastward, as shown on the graphic on the right, until the process known as tornado or RFD occlusion completed. The tornado turned to the left, cyclonically, around the mesocyclone. The red symbol at right is the only location where the tornado was sampled by the mobile doppler radar (Doppler on Wheels--DOWS). There the winds were measured at 165-185 mph and the circulation width at the ground at 3300 feet. On this basis the tornado was rated an EF4.</div>
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At the time the tornado was most intense, the radar signature was extremely impressive. I've included at right the radar plot from the DOWS at that time below.</div>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjtU-dP-UIfSMhEYPIo4r7zXyGNghkpK4Hgl81XTI7kJhl7ld3KjWOh5-aUgwBKNnbLv80JiysmlkSYTg_DWX1cFZHvUc5aG50CwZhlJLYwnDb2rMRaWxzMSKYKOB2Is_vW3uQVKt6nlE/s1600/Unknown.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgjtU-dP-UIfSMhEYPIo4r7zXyGNghkpK4Hgl81XTI7kJhl7ld3KjWOh5-aUgwBKNnbLv80JiysmlkSYTg_DWX1cFZHvUc5aG50CwZhlJLYwnDb2rMRaWxzMSKYKOB2Is_vW3uQVKt6nlE/s400/Unknown.png" width="400" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">DOWS radar plot corresponding to red<br />
symbol above. Upper left, reflectivity; Upper right, storm<br />
relative velocity. (Image Courtesy of NWS)</td></tr>
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">The tornado was extremely impressive visually for nearly its entire life cycle. Its visual appearance varied from a cone to a wedge. It was quite obvious that the funnel was extremely large and had violent circulation around it.</span><br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">We drove north towards Rozel and the tornado began to narrow...and at first we thought it had begun the roping out process. But shortly after that the trunk redeveloped with lofted debris north of town. I told Thom I thought another tornado might develop back along the flanking line, which by that time was east of us...as we were in roaring RFD (warm) air.</span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"> </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"> </span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"></span><br />
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<a href="http://tornado.sfsu.edu/Rozel2.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="Rozel2.jpg" border="0" data-cke-saved-src="http://tornado.sfsu.edu/Rozel2.jpg" height="476" src="http://tornado.sfsu.edu/Rozel2.jpg" style="vertical-align: middle;" width="640" /></a><br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHnu_dab_wVu7I2RB4yhhmU7DKhArGzImxDNMRjl1Cqxp_x5vi4y-7WyTKtCSmAM3gDkcWMHZ6vqctl29tX3XIX8KJVKE-0o0ch6YOpE5Qx2NKsI4GJmZ5Nfh9yIeDeL3I-AiuVahcnOc/s1600/Largest.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="470" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHnu_dab_wVu7I2RB4yhhmU7DKhArGzImxDNMRjl1Cqxp_x5vi4y-7WyTKtCSmAM3gDkcWMHZ6vqctl29tX3XIX8KJVKE-0o0ch6YOpE5Qx2NKsI4GJmZ5Nfh9yIeDeL3I-AiuVahcnOc/s640/Largest.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">These three images were taken over a five minute period and correspond to when tornado #1 was at its most intense. We were located about 2 miles south of Rozel at the time and the pictures are shot looking northwest.<br />
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<tr><td><img alt="Rozel3.jpg" data-cke-saved-src="http://tornado.sfsu.edu/Rozel3.jpg" height="480" src="http://tornado.sfsu.edu/Rozel3.jpg" style="color: #222222; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; vertical-align: middle;" width="640" /></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="font-size: 13px;">Tornado begins to narrow at its base just west of Rozel.<br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjYYFc6OCgIi7F5gEFQSfJh1iUhMgPs-QPC-edpyQycqo5_UuVEv5dSHaYhaxzAzvXGNnYXeiZ1Z1MYKcwiR-WQugeQha6ZLx8iCZ4SJYg5LyLzmrx-MykQ7MQ4vrxB4NmC1UcEJyKEfaI/s1600/Cone.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><br /></a><span style="color: #222222; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"><br /></span></td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://tornado.sfsu.edu/IMG_0951_Cropped.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-cke-saved-src="http://tornado.sfsu.edu/IMG_0951_Cropped.jpg" height="400" src="http://tornado.sfsu.edu/IMG_0951_Cropped.jpg" style="vertical-align: middle;" width="329" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">New tornado formed east of Rozel rapidly as first tornado was in<br />
the process of dissipating. Setting sun provided wonderful<br />
color to all cloud features.</td></tr>
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<span style="text-align: center;">We turned east and moved through Rozel. We wondered why the police had roadblocked several roads east of the first tornado. Out of the murk, we could then see</span> another fully developed cone...nearly a wedge briefly back along the flanking line. We barely got pictures of it.</div>
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This also was a very substantial tornado, as you can see in the picture at left. The setting sun began to produced unusual orange and purple highlights on this thing. It really was gorgeous, towering above us to the east.</div>
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The DOWS did not manage to redeploy so quickly to sample the rotation with this tornado. But it probably would have been at least an EF2 from the looks of it, though that is very difficult to judge from visual appearance alone.</div>
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<a href="http://tornado.sfsu.edu/Rope1.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-cke-saved-src="http://tornado.sfsu.edu/Rope1.jpg" height="290" src="http://tornado.sfsu.edu/Rope1.jpg" style="vertical-align: middle;" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxPfHAjEM7JDjrg-XVM_XKiUyq7InRUk0Ga0sbBgp9yhw9BhH3GdSri_6pOf2MQLEsZVBYEmG9x7AH4hvrpc0SE4Pb5CcS4a4MWU8t7pPaF5l16Op69M5guKHsirT6CvdzayiT-le-0v0/s1600/RopeA.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhxPfHAjEM7JDjrg-XVM_XKiUyq7InRUk0Ga0sbBgp9yhw9BhH3GdSri_6pOf2MQLEsZVBYEmG9x7AH4hvrpc0SE4Pb5CcS4a4MWU8t7pPaF5l16Op69M5guKHsirT6CvdzayiT-le-0v0/s400/RopeA.jpg" width="312" /></a></div>
Meanwhile, back at the original occlusion point, the original tornado was still pulsing, but in a downward trend. At one point it redeveloped a massive cone.<br />
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">While we were watching the second tornado that formed further southeast along the flanking line, yet another tornado</span><br />
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We're debating whether that was a new tornado, or the remnant of the original tornado as the main updraft area probably had crossed the road at that point. That tornado refused to give up the ghost, so to speak. It took nearly 30 minutes for it to finally rope out to nothing.</div>
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<span style="color: #222222; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 14px;">To the right are some pictures of the rope out phase of tornado 1 (or perhaps, as explained above, it was tornado 3). We were getting confused in the darkness and the episodes of good and poor visibility </span>And while it was doing that, it still had a substantial ground level circulation. Finally, even the tiny remnant of the funnel seemingly floating disconnected was associated with ground level debris.<br />
<br />
Thom and I agree that tornado 1 was the strongest, and largest, tornado we've seen in our chase careers. And now that we've had several days to consider what we saw and experience, we agree that it was the most phenomenal chase of our chase experiences together.<br />
<br />
From the decision to get us there, to the good fortune that made us stay in place in Kinsley instead of going north or south, to the road we chose with absolutely perfect vantage points, all was just about perfect.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://tornado.sfsu.edu/RopeSegmentjpg.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; font-family: Times; font-size: medium; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img alt="" border="0" data-cke-saved-src="http://tornado.sfsu.edu/RopeSegmentjpg.jpg" height="450" src="http://tornado.sfsu.edu/RopeSegmentjpg.jpg" style="vertical-align: middle;" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Last remnants of the rope out phase of Tornado 1 (or it may have been a third tornado). The last portion of the<br />
funnel seemed to float free, yet it was still associated with circulation at ground level and debris.</td></tr>
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John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-59658080358704519792013-05-22T09:28:00.006-07:002013-05-23T07:26:17.231-07:00May 22, 2013: Down Days Coming and Early Exit<b>Retrospective</b><br />
<br />
Thom and I are in Wichita Falls after a day in north-central Texas. Although there looks to be a supercell-favoring pattern tomorrow (May 23) in northwest TX and the southern TX Panhandle, I've decided to return home with Thom, who has get back due to family issues (good ones, though). <br />
<br />
This will be the last active log, and I will now concentrate on trying to get some pictures up for our productive days, mostly May 18 and 19.<br />
<br />
I am impressed with the numercial models, particularly the ensembles, which suggested a pattern favorable for supercells in the central Plains almost 10 days in advance. <br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1SVr_DYwPTOwmPp6ttbLzEtW_H-Ks0YuES5fEgu9z82aw6WeMSh7s7D-AGwU6GwPZ0hc-80XqpVPfJ3gZge7Pe5FYYqeDp-6FXzZlESpNiXvV8quMzLc-PE4oIwYWSOPQaH-bqCi-rhY/s1600/Screen+Shot+2013-05-22+at+9.37.42+AM.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh1SVr_DYwPTOwmPp6ttbLzEtW_H-Ks0YuES5fEgu9z82aw6WeMSh7s7D-AGwU6GwPZ0hc-80XqpVPfJ3gZge7Pe5FYYqeDp-6FXzZlESpNiXvV8quMzLc-PE4oIwYWSOPQaH-bqCi-rhY/s400/Screen+Shot+2013-05-22+at+9.37.42+AM.png" width="400" /></a><br />
It turns out that several research projects on tornado formation and evolution were able to get excellent data sets during the last five days. The Moore, Oklahoma tragedy casts a pall on this. Nonetheless, we are going to learn much about tornadogenesis because of these couple of projects. They were not on the Oklahoma City supercell, however, as they were south where most storm spotters and chasers were that day.<br />
<br />
I just learned that the tornado we documented near Kinsley, KS has been rated an EF4. There was no damage (as far as I know) to assess to determine this. But the Doppler on Wheels (DOWs) were there, and they were able to estimate the wind speed associated with the funnel. The map above shows the track for the first tornado. The colors correspond to damage or DOW evidence for a rating. The red tag shows the position of the tornado when the winds were 165-185 mph. This corresponds to an EF4 rating. The radar plot below right shows the DOW plotted radar images at the time the tornado was at maximum strength. We have pictures and video corresponding to most of the 7 mile damage path for this tornado.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK6JJzSVCuE67jjCR9pslgY5SJgfrabq0WjqsecPakb9zU03Pc770Yeld2pp7ENbfNhCaf-u_uE-SAusQxZnutfAVaq10af7dlmZtJ3BYq9Ct6l40FMZ7mA2Hw4T5tVDvbfwkqa0Z3j2g/s1600/Unknown.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="328" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjK6JJzSVCuE67jjCR9pslgY5SJgfrabq0WjqsecPakb9zU03Pc770Yeld2pp7ENbfNhCaf-u_uE-SAusQxZnutfAVaq10af7dlmZtJ3BYq9Ct6l40FMZ7mA2Hw4T5tVDvbfwkqa0Z3j2g/s400/Unknown.png" width="400" /></a>The damaging tornado that struck Moore is still making the news. I was interviewed via cell phone by KTVU-Channel 2 in Oakland...but I declined other interviews (one from CNN, and directed them to my colleagues who are actually in the Oklahoma City area and who have done refereed research on the previous tornadoes that struck that area.<br />
<br />
One reason I don't want to answer specific questions about the Moore tornado is that Thom and I were not there, nor have we assessed the damage. Several of my colleagues have already been involved in that, and their results already are belying the hyperbole about that tornado (for example, it was not two miles wide, nor did it have a two mile wide damage path. So far, I've only heard of documentation of damage consistent with an EF4 rating. But I only get that information hours after the surveys take place.<br />
<br />
I'm personally curious what meteorological parameters were in play in the Oklahoma City area that afternoon, that were not in play further south, where most researchers, spotters and chasers were placed. It's not obvious from the weather data and charts I have for that hour.<br />
<br />
<b>Yesterday's Chase</b><br />
<br />
The early runs of the models suggested a few isolated supercells forming around 1PM between Fort Worth and Abilene. By the time we got into that area, the models were showing none of that, but more of a discontinuous line. And that's what happened. We played hopscotch with the rapidly progressing front, trying to stay in the rich moisture ahead of it. <br />
<br />
When we got to Waco, several of the cells on the south end of the line became somewhat discrete. They showed some signs of becoming supercells, but never did. So, at around 6PM, we called it a chase, and drifted back to Wichita Falls. Along the way, we changed our plane reservations from Sunday afternoon to tomorrow, Thursday, May 23.<br />
<br />
This will be my earliest exit from a storm chase in all my years of chasing. However, apart from the first day, we've had pretty intense chasing every day of the trip. Of course, the best and most productive days for documenting tornadoes occurred on May 18 and 19 for us.<br />
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Once I have more time to examine our photography and videos for May 18, I will begin posting photo documentation of that day.<br />
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<br />John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-77876967717085825552013-05-21T08:45:00.001-07:002013-05-21T08:45:40.722-07:00May 21, 2013: North Central TXAnother Round of Supercells Expected Today: Risk of Strong Tornadoes Again<br />
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Not much time to post as we expect early initiation. We are currently near Gainesville TX and then are heading southwest to the area just east of Abilene. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4x1VecTkzMsPLZBTXz_VCa7QWZ9kjOTEDGel17z1f4LR6e3lnR3z5y5FcuH6m7rQEvhhxrZnjBtVAGTc7-kdWZWMt2QT0k8ZnSl9flMxzOPkA_ZpY4HdfcXk-Vf53NPfU39FjX_QFpfs/s1600/May21.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="376" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj4x1VecTkzMsPLZBTXz_VCa7QWZ9kjOTEDGel17z1f4LR6e3lnR3z5y5FcuH6m7rQEvhhxrZnjBtVAGTc7-kdWZWMt2QT0k8ZnSl9flMxzOPkA_ZpY4HdfcXk-Vf53NPfU39FjX_QFpfs/s400/May21.jpg" width="400" /></a>The morning weather map shows the low pressure area having drifted southward into central TX overnight. The setup is a bit different today as 500 mb winds (see graphic) have slackened just a bit.<br />
<br />
However, there is still the tap of high dew point air coming into central TX. The surface flow is a bit weaker than yesterday. Yet forecast hodographs indicate wind shear favorable for supercells, although the window for tornadoes appears short.<br />
<br />
An additional factor is an outflow boundary that is shifting southward out of the thunderstorms we just left in Ardmore. That also might provide a focus if storms forming to the west cross it later today. Unfortunately, the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex may be under the gun later today. John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-62107034101355814972013-05-20T17:13:00.001-07:002013-05-20T19:30:17.410-07:00Moore Tornado<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNKkqfyKfOn2llUNoNIqlTig9FRxGO5YvFtssQn-bnSdkNAPOq44LAWjmyTbAA0B-n8tequ-FZL2asHVUYH0YuvEhfknEmeTK3yHQgWTbIpzV2BE3quVYnCVQhz9Grj3JLxFNfQyHBXOs/s1600/579500_10152869984850164_526403100_n.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiNKkqfyKfOn2llUNoNIqlTig9FRxGO5YvFtssQn-bnSdkNAPOq44LAWjmyTbAA0B-n8tequ-FZL2asHVUYH0YuvEhfknEmeTK3yHQgWTbIpzV2BE3quVYnCVQhz9Grj3JLxFNfQyHBXOs/s320/579500_10152869984850164_526403100_n.jpg" width="320" /></a>Just an awful coincidence that the tornado that devastated Oklahoma City's southern suburbs took basically the same path as the May 3, 1999 tornado, and very similar path to the tornado that struck the same area a couple of years later.<br />
<br />
Most chasers were on the storms further south. Thom and I passed that storm when it was developing and figured that more substantial storms would be further south...so we went on by, in fact around it, to get to the tornadic storm further south. We did not get to any storm today that had a tornado.<br />
<br />
Just as well that we didn't leave even later, as we came from Ponca City in the north....and would have probably chased that storm as our only option later in the day.<br />
<br />
It looks like all my chase colleagues are safe, and most who are down here are choosing not to contribute to the confusion in Moore....as I35 passes right through that beleagured town.<br />
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The graphic is designed by Meredith Botnick to show support for the people of Oklahoma who have endured tragedy today and yesterday.<br />
<br />
There is a plea for $10 donations, via a text number.<br />
<br />
Text 32333<br />
Subject: FOOD<br />
<br />
That will provide a $10 donation for victim relief.John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-23434449173607237792013-05-20T09:03:00.003-07:002013-05-20T10:36:13.332-07:00May 20, 2013: S-Central Oklahoma<b>More Tornadic Supercells Today in Oklahoma: Preliminary Target for Storm Intiation---Lawton, OK</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
(More complete discussion with illustrations later. Also, still have not had time to fill in log with pictures. Looks like we may have a down day soon, on which I can catch up).<br />
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We overnighted in Ponca City, Oklahoma. Just returned from a nice run around Lake Ponca.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipgXos04VZXi0XS3HVhqcEcY5soKh3Mp-m1HYuKmj2yOYsy8HhJ-v1G0-xEFmppoxV4td9-klsFi56LIEmsat0ixsm0U0vmSPUIbl6gjjSVurCgXSPiwVhMmPnJumYJdh8KygqXYCpKBc/s1600/May20.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="353" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEipgXos04VZXi0XS3HVhqcEcY5soKh3Mp-m1HYuKmj2yOYsy8HhJ-v1G0-xEFmppoxV4td9-klsFi56LIEmsat0ixsm0U0vmSPUIbl6gjjSVurCgXSPiwVhMmPnJumYJdh8KygqXYCpKBc/s400/May20.jpg" width="400" /></a>The morning weather map shows a surface low in sw Oklahoma, with a dry line extending southwestward into north Texas. A cold front extends from that dry line, with the intersection near Altus OK, back northwestward. <br />
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A warm front extends from that intersection across Oklahoma to se KS. That three way intersection is often referred to as a "triple point" by severe weather meteorologists.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJB9vUqvXlJVQ4gOcd9W41xTO-cK1YRNs-7GKFFzWs870-gPf7thwUBJ1EfaRQ1qBZ1bGuwHEMd3S59JviL0q8YmPMRFfiafFXNuqPujy9ehcxLykN5CK-Y2MLtguQOO0XT6XfVdghMuE/s1600/eta12hr_sfc_cape.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJB9vUqvXlJVQ4gOcd9W41xTO-cK1YRNs-7GKFFzWs870-gPf7thwUBJ1EfaRQ1qBZ1bGuwHEMd3S59JviL0q8YmPMRFfiafFXNuqPujy9ehcxLykN5CK-Y2MLtguQOO0XT6XfVdghMuE/s320/eta12hr_sfc_cape.gif" width="320" /></a>Ahead of the dry line, an air mass rich in moisture is found to the warm front. That air mass is projected to have surface based CAPE values (a measure of how warm ascending air parcels will be relative to their surroundings through the deep troposphere) of 4000-5000 J/kg (see graphic to right). These really are values at the upper end of the sort we usually see with severe weather, and indicate (Metr 201 and 415/715 students will know this) updrafts that should support extremely large hail. On the map above, the light green represents areas with 60F+ dew point, and the darker green 70+.<br />
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Once again a very strong jet stream (see graphic at upper right) will produce wind shear values favorable for supercell convection and, in parts of Oklahoma, low level wind shear favorable for these supercells to develop tornadoes.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYzEA4l9dvnnG3DkbKG1aZw51_celaYTj-A_C9As8htrfemTDhQgrfKQhx_yIGOTbARatQF8VkDvBRB0oL8lqSQaJgTfTEx9yPdrHBj6vmB1-b0OVy5k43kLgJLnSfmneHGKmuyFB7j4o/s1600/g13.2013140.1715_ICT_vis.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhYzEA4l9dvnnG3DkbKG1aZw51_celaYTj-A_C9As8htrfemTDhQgrfKQhx_yIGOTbARatQF8VkDvBRB0oL8lqSQaJgTfTEx9yPdrHBj6vmB1-b0OVy5k43kLgJLnSfmneHGKmuyFB7j4o/s400/g13.2013140.1715_ICT_vis.jpg" width="400" /></a>The issues center on two aspects of the forecast storm motions. First, the storms will be moving at an angle that's too close to the dry line, instead of at right angles. This could mean that each storm will be running over a previous storm's cold pool....and we can end up with a big line of storms, as we did yesterday in northern Oklahoma. If that happens, the time window for tornado formation will be small...before each storm runs into that cold pool. <br />
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Second, unless the surface winds cooperate, storm motions could be 40-50 mph, as they were yesterday, making for exceedingly difficult chasing....it's almost impossible to set in one location and take pictures, for example, when the storm rushes by like that. Fortunately, the surface winds are forecast to be more southerly or south-southeasterly, rather than hard southeasterly. In that case, we're likely to have storm motions of around 30 mph.<br />
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In any case, we are off to our target area, where the visible image above shows a low level cumulus field already bubbling.<br />
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<br />John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-74014202927406364412013-05-19T15:03:00.000-07:002013-05-19T15:10:43.347-07:00Brief Elephant Trunk Tornado near South Haven KS<div class="mobile-photo">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeufBTMrR8Sw9EsxhLRjrPsT0GkJz_Of3-_i6ywICmJ5un5Zbu2sqb04dPz8a1shQY1dT-FzudVkIeSX4ygJ_8o1-OcIZTKgyC2ypkBmxeefWctwO8G6OAyWoqwBCDfrMl1W-H91ono7w/s1600/IMG_0954-743667.jpg"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5879814709478006738" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeufBTMrR8Sw9EsxhLRjrPsT0GkJz_Of3-_i6ywICmJ5un5Zbu2sqb04dPz8a1shQY1dT-FzudVkIeSX4ygJ_8o1-OcIZTKgyC2ypkBmxeefWctwO8G6OAyWoqwBCDfrMl1W-H91ono7w/s320/IMG_0954-743667.jpg" /></a></div>
Tornado near Sourh Haven KS developed right over our heads.John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-86882036396659648222013-05-19T06:57:00.002-07:002013-05-19T11:35:11.376-07:00May 19, 2013 -- Provisional Target for Storm Initiation North-Central OklahomaAnother Round of Tornadic Supercells Expected: Provisional Target--northernl OK/se KS<br />
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(Complete log of yesterday's magnificent cyclic tornadic supercell will be posted during the day today)<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXt16wRavSmLwmj0nXXloYzgVNYw69FqlnNBNv-KaqBr3cCylkKfKPeTHAgyZWg4bC7IrFjdKVDl7UHwuXe7GFxY62eAivfa8Q2sL0xZT-R6YZYf4D-LzmFDuS2iEE1TzSK6qt_7Z-j_M/s1600/May19.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="393" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiXt16wRavSmLwmj0nXXloYzgVNYw69FqlnNBNv-KaqBr3cCylkKfKPeTHAgyZWg4bC7IrFjdKVDl7UHwuXe7GFxY62eAivfa8Q2sL0xZT-R6YZYf4D-LzmFDuS2iEE1TzSK6qt_7Z-j_M/s400/May19.jpg" width="400" /></a>Our first look at data this morning shows a triple point (join between a warm front, dry line and cold front) somewhere jn northwest of Oklahoma City today, drifting much through the day, and ending up near I35 east of Enid (see graphic to the right). There is an outflow boundary from last night's convection over southeast KS and northeastern OK. <br />
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Dew points east of the triple point are in the 60's with 70s surging northward in southeasterly flow over the eastern two thirds of Oklahoma into southeast KS. On the chart at right, green areas reprsent dew points >60F. Deepest green indicates dwpoints >70F.<br />
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The 500 mb wind flow (~18000 ft) will be the strongest of the trip so far, with widespread 40-50 knots in southwest flow over the threat area. <br />
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Hodographs (diagrams that show the variation of wind direction and speed with height) plotted for this afternoon just east of the dry line show a pattern favorable both for supercells and for a wind profile in the lowest km or so supportive of tornadoes. Some of those tornadoes might be strong and violent. Other measures of updraft rotation, such as 0-3 km Storm Relative Helicity (see diagram at right) are consistent with the impressive hodographs (the green and yellow areas on the chart at right are an estimate of updraft rotation).<br />
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The 12 UTC run of the WRF-NAM is not yet in. So Thom and I will go out on a run, and we'll see then what our actual intiial target will be. Our target is shown in the red box above. My thought is that the outflow boundary will act as a storm initiation mechanism. There is also enhanced shear along that. That shear can be ingested into the updraft of thunderstorms and augment their rotation.<br />
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Meanwhile, tomorrow's pattern looks to be in about the same area, or slightly further southeast...but with conditions favoring another outbreak of supercells, some with strong and violent tornadoes.<br />
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<br />John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-47207379298325466332013-05-18T19:29:00.001-07:002013-05-18T19:29:07.504-07:00Tornado 1 Ropes Out<p class="mobile-photo"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9Pl0Wsigx_pCmmBO3sFQXWpAFcm1nBdpFEDMP6nD17WGXZB8X8NujM4lxkSLVqe0PdplkL2304ubZ2Gxxq32RC2go_ahIdQzXe_ZuxENU4_FPbs7e-Pk0eIkhnz5LE25AGhZEe3LfVOM/s1600/photo-747505.JPG"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi9Pl0Wsigx_pCmmBO3sFQXWpAFcm1nBdpFEDMP6nD17WGXZB8X8NujM4lxkSLVqe0PdplkL2304ubZ2Gxxq32RC2go_ahIdQzXe_ZuxENU4_FPbs7e-Pk0eIkhnz5LE25AGhZEe3LfVOM/s320/photo-747505.JPG" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5879511931198842626" /></a></p>John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-56794130761397740522013-05-18T17:28:00.001-07:002013-05-18T17:28:48.550-07:00<p class="mobile-photo"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3nZVpfDSln-J8SEKANRdt0U6EpQwPzLwDZo7DUpzGG2K2oSY4_yV10uiR7FS0LEMaJpXjFtffjx2OIGAhMjGOHMPy5cN2tMXL0J_pE73b1pyuiZdwXfUrehTYBNQwA-SHfhb4Wy-hrqs/s1600/photo-728551.JPG"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh3nZVpfDSln-J8SEKANRdt0U6EpQwPzLwDZo7DUpzGG2K2oSY4_yV10uiR7FS0LEMaJpXjFtffjx2OIGAhMjGOHMPy5cN2tMXL0J_pE73b1pyuiZdwXfUrehTYBNQwA-SHfhb4Wy-hrqs/s320/photo-728551.JPG" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5879480926877926834" /></a></p>John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-58476856121286707732013-05-18T17:23:00.001-07:002013-05-29T10:24:01.527-07:00Tornado in process of formation, between Kinsley and Rozel, KS...May 18, 2013<div class="mobile-photo">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUG53fBaXmq-eD2yKWEyaPXBp_BScraAHkXyvq2e_XOSs5l6zHDfw0eNvmnfwdE3Eu30v_u5VFzGKPSNhrBHoHEKsGJ40INOwxzrhxltPF8sSqIUC2D1_uba_WcaZ8xF9Q6PMB08KaPYg/s1600/photo-713486.JPG"><img alt="" border="0" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5879479571584713970" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhUG53fBaXmq-eD2yKWEyaPXBp_BScraAHkXyvq2e_XOSs5l6zHDfw0eNvmnfwdE3Eu30v_u5VFzGKPSNhrBHoHEKsGJ40INOwxzrhxltPF8sSqIUC2D1_uba_WcaZ8xF9Q6PMB08KaPYg/s320/photo-713486.JPG" /></a></div>
John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-41042092759520284602013-05-18T16:23:00.001-07:002013-05-18T16:23:25.978-07:00Funnel clouds near Kinsley KS<p class="mobile-photo"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLyw-HInPVloGDLYKbIvwABH9LiibASlPQy3rgvvjWL5fHcuTiOuBC-OfTh3agQMCvaxacf8NQCrdpeEL0ss8EmloFo4JQvkInds9hdfFk5CbTtSdfArr2Mq_I56pt2tr2weeZVlN_j5o/s1600/photo-705979.JPG"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLyw-HInPVloGDLYKbIvwABH9LiibASlPQy3rgvvjWL5fHcuTiOuBC-OfTh3agQMCvaxacf8NQCrdpeEL0ss8EmloFo4JQvkInds9hdfFk5CbTtSdfArr2Mq_I56pt2tr2weeZVlN_j5o/s320/photo-705979.JPG" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5879464082648429186" /></a></p>John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-34157676736138169892013-05-18T13:51:00.001-07:002013-05-18T13:51:44.144-07:00Dryline initiation<p class="mobile-photo"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilW4-Bx9srA76rmi4gXAbKrmxpSQdz2qiThEpRRhxs5gAU-j87B2JPyVBXiZ_aNWlRz_8G0K_iZRkS2aRUKG6glyW3Kfdkj8XoHs83kZzgE73PkyZ54gXws5l6DQjvDMZ2ITt_dX9S3Yw/s1600/photo-704144.JPG"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEilW4-Bx9srA76rmi4gXAbKrmxpSQdz2qiThEpRRhxs5gAU-j87B2JPyVBXiZ_aNWlRz_8G0K_iZRkS2aRUKG6glyW3Kfdkj8XoHs83kZzgE73PkyZ54gXws5l6DQjvDMZ2ITt_dX9S3Yw/s320/photo-704144.JPG" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5879424988375020786" /></a></p>John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-9906045720829616912013-05-18T10:23:00.000-07:002013-05-18T10:23:17.684-07:00Convergence of ChasersHere's an image showing the positions of storm spotters/chasers at 11:49 AM CDT. You can see that there will be quite a few of them out today. Let's hope that all engage in safe behavior. Apparently in the Dallas area last Wednesday there were chasers parked in the middle of highways, for goodness sake.<br />
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John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-58462395082463611742013-05-18T08:17:00.001-07:002013-05-18T09:44:31.009-07:00May 18, 2013: Target Areas Range from sw Nebraska to scentral KS<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwJvEohen2FlbFfc2_gXLVANVwy3B-sFzphMQT4wUyxSb8ALgjljy9PMmrfwO9P3UoJXCjeirFXUMUiSlFpxdttaJtncOrvfN916fv-fQdk-J0f7MlpdnRWaWcKbnX20JybONZoixGzy4/s1600/May18.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="295" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhwJvEohen2FlbFfc2_gXLVANVwy3B-sFzphMQT4wUyxSb8ALgjljy9PMmrfwO9P3UoJXCjeirFXUMUiSlFpxdttaJtncOrvfN916fv-fQdk-J0f7MlpdnRWaWcKbnX20JybONZoixGzy4/s320/May18.jpg" width="320" /></a><br />
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<b>Significant Risk for Tornadic Supercells over Broad Area Today</b></div>
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Thom and I are just heading south from North Platte. </div>
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While significant CAPE exists from I80 south surmounted by more than adequate storm relative shear for supercells, I don't much like the storm motions relative to the dry line and the mid tropospheric winds further north for sustained discrete convection and storms that don't collide with other storms' cold outflows.</div>
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The RAP and WRF-NAM are really confused about progged dew point and CAPE/CIN fields. But both are in agreement about the strong surface pressure falls in sw KS with the low pressure area developing eastward into that area and a dry line bulge coming out of OK into that area. The forecast hodographs are impressive for the area from Wichita west to Dodge CIty and up to I70. So right now we are targeting that area.</div>
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However, we are going to think harder about that target when we get to McCook or so. The HRRR is consistent too in showing cells in SW Nebraska with a lot of updraft helicity. But later runs also show really imprssive looking cells in south-central KS.<br />
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Below I've included the WRF-NAM forecast for Pratt KS at around 7PM this evening. The buoyancy is really upper end, with 5000 J/kg and no CIN. Metr 201 and 698 students will remember that the forecast for maximum upward velocity (assuming no entrainment and no turbulent mixing) is the square root of 2 X CAPE. In reality, maximum updraft at the EL will be about 1/3 or lsss of that....but that's till nearly 100 mph....enough to justify the forecast of cantaloupe sized hail.<br />
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John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-41894681552339578992013-05-17T13:32:00.000-07:002013-05-17T13:41:05.595-07:00KLNX - SuperRes Reflectivity Tilt 1 2:25 PM<p class="mobile-photo"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyv5vKCo42X04yDN-G5NVvBoRk_-6mJ6i8QMibtI0lKxfAKuR9JIi1jX0dpydBaLw1L76D_Hr0-xzH700slyIisA7kRWnOC-3uPrKwBYzmf98At-5nBEtk8tQ64g9wPvg58m1A9jqzPJk/s1600/KLNX-WDTR1.201305172025-765595.png"><img src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyv5vKCo42X04yDN-G5NVvBoRk_-6mJ6i8QMibtI0lKxfAKuR9JIi1jX0dpydBaLw1L76D_Hr0-xzH700slyIisA7kRWnOC-3uPrKwBYzmf98At-5nBEtk8tQ64g9wPvg58m1A9jqzPJk/s320/KLNX-WDTR1.201305172025-765595.png" border="0" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5879051161121751906" /></a></p>KLNX - SuperRes Reflectivity Tilt 1 2:25 PMJohn Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-78869163930122354602013-05-17T09:43:00.001-07:002013-05-29T10:21:26.755-07:00Friday May 17 Target---NW Nebraska<table cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="float: left; margin-right: 1em; text-align: left;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglyHJiJM8SysDKXZeEsuYxzOIeMwZKH39RFpu0L-RLo-tpYy5qb1aGEwrqJDlTdrKZTVZ6OnMzXojtBGQQptXJMN9RKeX6Z6GgcSRtWHDhcB8io-KTgZG87-v4xgMrgfOhup4-4pQ7TvE/s1600/IMG_0925.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="140" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEglyHJiJM8SysDKXZeEsuYxzOIeMwZKH39RFpu0L-RLo-tpYy5qb1aGEwrqJDlTdrKZTVZ6OnMzXojtBGQQptXJMN9RKeX6Z6GgcSRtWHDhcB8io-KTgZG87-v4xgMrgfOhup4-4pQ7TvE/s640/IMG_0925.JPG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: x-small;">The "Road Less Traveled". Panorama shot on Highway 61 in the Sand Hills, somewhere north of Hyannis</span></div>
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<b>Initial Target--Through the Sand Hills</b><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk-eLHg8laCQYzQ2jSsGgK7iayq6hx04qfsXX5uEx1FOsolVWX1thgiapViic4Mtge2OU9aT_ZXERwk3b1ArIKs8VUMz5f92eQGMWqu5JbdrERdBRKF5CpqYJXD_KpycMMsN6cup_5NLk/s1600/May17.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="391" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgk-eLHg8laCQYzQ2jSsGgK7iayq6hx04qfsXX5uEx1FOsolVWX1thgiapViic4Mtge2OU9aT_ZXERwk3b1ArIKs8VUMz5f92eQGMWqu5JbdrERdBRKF5CpqYJXD_KpycMMsN6cup_5NLk/s400/May17.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
The morning weather map shows that yesterday's warm front has drifted north to the South Dakota border. <br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggCgifkKRb13XcQS0patdSPpo_64ylLyPSLmKinoFBR2LRs-a1VyOeTOgt8_vfB6cLn2Y0M0UcY4nZIWQbUvljGx7EIpLzXcHQ97zxTfvh0Z6Nx7B_1I4Q1WKguqbBIAN1XKS63Bi9avc/s1600/Hoodograph.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggCgifkKRb13XcQS0patdSPpo_64ylLyPSLmKinoFBR2LRs-a1VyOeTOgt8_vfB6cLn2Y0M0UcY4nZIWQbUvljGx7EIpLzXcHQ97zxTfvh0Z6Nx7B_1I4Q1WKguqbBIAN1XKS63Bi9avc/s640/Hoodograph.png" width="630" /></a><br />
Southerly winds have brought mid 50 dew points into most of Nebraska east of a dry line that extends from the center of a cyclone in ne CO southward.<br />
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As the main trough in the middle and upper troposphere (see 500 mb chart posted) continues to evolve, pressures should fall in that low, drawing southeasterly winds across most of Nebraska, and bringing even 60+ dew points into the state.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjALkbQHMe8MJ_mbOQTP1kiO0_c6-OwXv5A3XubVGdqwcJA1zKpDZOmjRWFS8I-4mUdcQTo_KquaQj5Z6y62uo6QyOkM7jZPIPhxUWJ15IyC11ZTencKbHG5WZ9v-NGK6k-8Mf3C4tMfmM/s1600/Sounding.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="614" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjALkbQHMe8MJ_mbOQTP1kiO0_c6-OwXv5A3XubVGdqwcJA1zKpDZOmjRWFS8I-4mUdcQTo_KquaQj5Z6y62uo6QyOkM7jZPIPhxUWJ15IyC11ZTencKbHG5WZ9v-NGK6k-8Mf3C4tMfmM/s640/Sounding.png" width="640" /></a> Given the winds aloft, southeasterly surface winds are very favorable for the kind of deep layer shear (see hodograph) that encourages supercellular convection. <br />
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW-TP0AZ19isqwlm9QjqqFj2hUu1v3pMK6KKq1rFeot_nOruEwUbCgIRv0jyfM8Y9JEHPibczn787xcIBVUOfTohyphenhyphen8uUKE17ENNyTmZEq7OHfhl5rn1dUktTN1vGtqtKWVSOQCON9aVUQ/s1600/cref_t2sfc_f07.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="172" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW-TP0AZ19isqwlm9QjqqFj2hUu1v3pMK6KKq1rFeot_nOruEwUbCgIRv0jyfM8Y9JEHPibczn787xcIBVUOfTohyphenhyphen8uUKE17ENNyTmZEq7OHfhl5rn1dUktTN1vGtqtKWVSOQCON9aVUQ/s200/cref_t2sfc_f07.png" width="200" /></a><br />
Right now, the best combination of this deep layer shear with the buoyancy most favorable for deep convection (see sounding) is projected to be in the red box drawn on the surface chart. There are also several aspects of the deep layer shear in combination with the projected low level shear suggestive of relatively long lived rotating storms, although they may tend towards the HP mode.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjALkbQHMe8MJ_mbOQTP1kiO0_c6-OwXv5A3XubVGdqwcJA1zKpDZOmjRWFS8I-4mUdcQTo_KquaQj5Z6y62uo6QyOkM7jZPIPhxUWJ15IyC11ZTencKbHG5WZ9v-NGK6k-8Mf3C4tMfmM/s1600/Sounding.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"></a><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhXBXIY1-wK9KKgBl8FaBXJD_lbivW1Djh0uItEa1Pq8pMLsAt4-AbyB2PFuNvGroGgj6KHFSI49e6-zIC2nyPPupkZfC3zBZDnXOpQdU5cwtWAygjScfwkdOMVEc33HFWrcwz06bU7So/s1600/cref_t2sfc_f10.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="172" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhXBXIY1-wK9KKgBl8FaBXJD_lbivW1Djh0uItEa1Pq8pMLsAt4-AbyB2PFuNvGroGgj6KHFSI49e6-zIC2nyPPupkZfC3zBZDnXOpQdU5cwtWAygjScfwkdOMVEc33HFWrcwz06bU7So/s200/cref_t2sfc_f10.png" width="200" /></a>The High Resolution Rapid Refresh Model (HRRR) depicts storm initiation in the eastern Nebraska Panhandle around 20 UTC (3 PM CDT). I've included that graphic and also what the HRRR depicts that echo doing by 0000 UTC (7PM CDT). The model creates a very intense mostly isolated storm that appears to be a supercell, having moved northeastward to just south of the South Dakota border.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7-n2T4oU3jJby-PjSo7p4VEdxJysnTMpI5lVgH8_cJO8qIcDTZFLomae7JDduQf_7feT4qPatytK2OkBPl2ClWyfvIOqDCduyG-NcgfZBPNNgshoercLkvs9T9Uhp0zqwEFeL5na98AE/s1600/ruc12hr_500_wnd.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="200" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj7-n2T4oU3jJby-PjSo7p4VEdxJysnTMpI5lVgH8_cJO8qIcDTZFLomae7JDduQf_7feT4qPatytK2OkBPl2ClWyfvIOqDCduyG-NcgfZBPNNgshoercLkvs9T9Uhp0zqwEFeL5na98AE/s200/ruc12hr_500_wnd.gif" width="200" /></a>So our target is not far today. Also, it does look like the highest risk for tornadic supercells tomorrow will be along the KS-Nebraska border, so whatever happens today, we will be in good position for tomorrow's storms.<br />
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<b>The Chase</b><br />
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<table align="center" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" class="tr-caption-container" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><tbody>
<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJWhJJMFFdfNoe5gIQBcGi7FJg6f0N3oxmFgwygitUZV4r20F7pJ4W2qDSzb3My4lVQZlCg5ygoummXZVfybA6OAM09yrSEpEESjTRCaihTjkNXL-sMES9oT1FO8-3upM6grIk22Ha5iM/s1600/IMG_0929.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="142" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjJWhJJMFFdfNoe5gIQBcGi7FJg6f0N3oxmFgwygitUZV4r20F7pJ4W2qDSzb3My4lVQZlCg5ygoummXZVfybA6OAM09yrSEpEESjTRCaihTjkNXL-sMES9oT1FO8-3upM6grIk22Ha5iM/s640/IMG_0929.JPG" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Panorama of Alliance, Nebraska elevated supercell, view towards the northwest.. Detail of the updraft base is given below. Inflow bands at midlevel and a large low level "tail" inflow can be seen on the right side of the image.</td></tr>
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwl9KJcKNnj8Ew11gleOTvUYxs6EDVpzzaoPPGSZmapX5-afZEKg8zmnJDIc_3LN_y91DkehfuBY95HzCoKg19Srr6xPpL4mAYcMjQbTnMG8GFDD1MmuVYygXGIi_pwhAjs7o1JSGravs/s1600/IMG_0923.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjwl9KJcKNnj8Ew11gleOTvUYxs6EDVpzzaoPPGSZmapX5-afZEKg8zmnJDIc_3LN_y91DkehfuBY95HzCoKg19Srr6xPpL4mAYcMjQbTnMG8GFDD1MmuVYygXGIi_pwhAjs7o1JSGravs/s320/IMG_0923.JPG" width="180" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The cell we targeted was east of Alliance. It had the familiar<br />hook and flying eagle presentation of supercells.</td></tr>
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We drifted west to Ogallala as the first round of initiation began to occur in eastern Wyoming. We drifted north on state highway 61 through the Sand Hills and into Cherry County. <br />
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Cherry County has only a few roads, so it is a target area dreaded by chasers. The early initiation was pretty much as the HRRR depicted (as shown in the last section. The early storms congealed into a small line, and we attempted to get on "tail end" charlie.<br />
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That we did. <br />
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That portion of the line was broken up into somewhat discrete cells. These were rotating and presented as small supercells on radar. We targeted the south cell that had somewhat of a couplet on storm relative velocity plots.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgByxZSpLh-Q6kSmU1PgbsyRa2tD0KFnuK5AGYikzytj9_WK853jpj1ANhkow-S5Uy-N9WuqlGWXoY0fSvv0NOcCN6S1mqzHkB7rJpc4JguEcjASTONQbelh792aTdQKc26eJ5hDZPkaGA/s1600/IMG_0924.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgByxZSpLh-Q6kSmU1PgbsyRa2tD0KFnuK5AGYikzytj9_WK853jpj1ANhkow-S5Uy-N9WuqlGWXoY0fSvv0NOcCN6S1mqzHkB7rJpc4JguEcjASTONQbelh792aTdQKc26eJ5hDZPkaGA/s320/IMG_0924.JPG" width="180" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">The storm also had a moderate couplet on it, as shown on the<br />North Platte Doppler radar storm relative velocity profile<br />(The light red (outbound) next to the dark green (inbound).</td></tr>
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By the way, it's worth it to point out that our decision not to activate Mobile ThreatNet was a good one. ATT has excellent coverage through most of the Plains, and good enough coverage even in the traditional "holes" (like the Sand Hills) for RadarScope to get files (even though at exactly the same location GRLevel was not able to receive files.<br />
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In addition Thom had an iPhone using Verizon, and we were often able to alternate phones when GRLevel was not able to get files, and one of the other, Verizon or ATT was not in range.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdBP3lcBwy_Hjn_k4yCfjflgp0CsP5bz7yml5cCB_oE8kmoyBU0otSQxAo_31Pnngg_0hd4Z8r6gK1yH9x6h1bzIPChBvujRqCkltJrZLSAufueScSPK21rCn5lKV86N2vYy9Ivk09rAs/s1600/P5170007.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="240" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgdBP3lcBwy_Hjn_k4yCfjflgp0CsP5bz7yml5cCB_oE8kmoyBU0otSQxAo_31Pnngg_0hd4Z8r6gK1yH9x6h1bzIPChBvujRqCkltJrZLSAufueScSPK21rCn5lKV86N2vYy9Ivk09rAs/s320/P5170007.JPG" width="320" /></a>As we dropped southeast of that storm, we could see it was elevated. It was clearly a supercell, but the the surface dew points were too low and the condensation was developing four or five thousand feet above the ground. There we could see the familiar horsehoe base, with a Rear Flank Downdraft cut.<br />
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<br />The panorama of this storm (shown above) shows that it had midlevel cloud bands extending into it and a large inflow band at lower midlevels. It was indeed a supercell, and somewhat picturesque. However, it did not have a chance of becoming tornadic.<br />
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<tr><td style="text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8CSioVNb077TkZ1OiaKli_zXfJuPjwAQyVJKsQKSqXGCu7pfentcZWlnp5sjFze2rDxmgA_ouVjebarqY8kVsH0VSsB9XCBONBRGnOcD5kB6bvYOvsM6QXYd9BODzq5NegBcLa9jKKyQ/s1600/EelvatedMesocyclone.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: auto; margin-right: auto;"><img border="0" height="440" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj8CSioVNb077TkZ1OiaKli_zXfJuPjwAQyVJKsQKSqXGCu7pfentcZWlnp5sjFze2rDxmgA_ouVjebarqY8kVsH0VSsB9XCBONBRGnOcD5kB6bvYOvsM6QXYd9BODzq5NegBcLa9jKKyQ/s640/EelvatedMesocyclone.jpg" width="640" /></a></td></tr>
<tr><td class="tr-caption" style="text-align: center;">Final view of "tail end Charlie" showing detail of horseshoe base, indicative of a mesocyclone in the lower midlevels of the storm. The rear flank downdraft cut is also visible at the center of the horseshoe and lined up well with the radar presentation (examples above).</td></tr>
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<br />John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-53554822390008489692013-05-16T20:16:00.001-07:002013-05-16T20:16:39.857-07:00Provisional Targets for Friday, Saturday and Sunday AfternoonsWe've just looked at the latest model runs....and here's our first guess for targets:<br />
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Friday -- Marginal to adequate shear, good buoyancy, sw Nebraska<br />
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Saturday -- Excellent shear and pretty monstrous buoyancy, s central Nebraska/north central KS<br />
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Sunday -- Adequate shear and monstrous buoyancy, central Oklahoma.<br />
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This is based upon the 0000 UTC model runs. Tomorrow we will begin refining and I will post some charts.<br />
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We are overnighting in North Platte Thursday night. It's only 8:20 PM PDT (we are in the central time zone now), but we are already pooping out after a long day, with a bit of travel and logistic stress.John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-23580390408215950612013-05-16T14:49:00.001-07:002013-05-16T19:30:35.992-07:00First DayWe are on I76 moving northeast. Off to our northwest, a cluster of storms is coming off the Cheyenne Ridge. There is currently a severe thunderstorm warning on those. <br />
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Off to our east is a multicell cluster with severe thunderstorm warnings on those. NOne of these storms are supercells.<br />
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Our departure from Denver Airport was delayed because, inexplicably, our car reservation was cancelled by Hertz. This occurred despite the fact that I called last night to confirm the change in plane reservations. All was well, I was told.<br />
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After a 45 minute delay, the reservations were reinstated.<br />
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We got the car setup....and off we go.<br />
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The dew points up here are meager. But 50+ are coming into Colorado....and much higher into Nebraska.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHS6Tw9IpdhQ1tKvJbiZ7bb5JfH6V4otobvz8Xo8trIPfW6oG_9e29r4OgsZqGUFiE_4fwnyV0uespqLcpiTfeZgWyVD9WBqsPRazgjHewD1xt8wDjvr77VJ7TfjCHXalsnqhGrsTO3i8/s1600/photo.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="144" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiHS6Tw9IpdhQ1tKvJbiZ7bb5JfH6V4otobvz8Xo8trIPfW6oG_9e29r4OgsZqGUFiE_4fwnyV0uespqLcpiTfeZgWyVD9WBqsPRazgjHewD1xt8wDjvr77VJ7TfjCHXalsnqhGrsTO3i8/s640/photo.JPG" width="640" /></a></div>
<br />John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-31359698518087795982013-05-15T10:29:00.003-07:002013-05-15T10:29:47.775-07:00Preliminary Target...Western Nebraska<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcHc3yPbv9kQDFyjiCheS6SRrwEswv2Rs1e1C-pXDz0TsAfcCg3Y8TymvW3yGW8BIbYpQQGddePOiSz3AXIczuHuKDXJrCLalBrmyq5QAmerIlZbFa-9l7KxY3WVNN7eNXJ08J9dwT2vM/s1600/eta36hr_500_wnd.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcHc3yPbv9kQDFyjiCheS6SRrwEswv2Rs1e1C-pXDz0TsAfcCg3Y8TymvW3yGW8BIbYpQQGddePOiSz3AXIczuHuKDXJrCLalBrmyq5QAmerIlZbFa-9l7KxY3WVNN7eNXJ08J9dwT2vM/s400/eta36hr_500_wnd.gif" width="400" /></a>Our preliminary target for tomorrow is western Nebraska. We're also keeping an eye on the TX Panhandle. Either area is reachable from Denver, as we are due in 1230 PM MDT/<br />
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The main issue (and it's actually a good one to have) is the exact evolution of the trough that is coming into the West tomorrow. In some years, we'd have no troughs to talk about...so that's good news.<br />
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The complication is that this trough (shown on the morning's WRF-NAM 36 hour 500 mb forecas (see graphic) for tomorrow afternoon at 5PM PDT/7PM MDT) is been consistently deeper and further south than previous runs of the models had it. This then has the result of throwing the jet stream further north in a ridge over the eastern Plains, but keeping the stronger winds aloft further west.<br />
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As a result, we'll be struggling to get 30 knots out of the 500 mb flow over Nebraska. The good news is that the flow impinging the Rockies is already generating a lee-side surface low that is pretty strong and bringing moist air from the Gulf of Mexico surging into the southern and central Plains.<br />
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Right now the surface warm front is on the KS-Nebraska border and it's expected to move only slightly northward over the next 36 hours (see graphic). Along and just south of that front will be dew points in the middle to upper 50s, perhaps even 60F in moderately strong southeast winds. <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgQpa4OuBfa9YB_2vMLc2iKJfeBM6E9BcwrbGzRmkWhogahZvC-eDZfdvl2GQw4SFFLoCMYoznG-yanYHUGSwnO6wCg8cEjTVERYOEY3CviigdLrA0MEclZeePWT03RU_-FF74D700sbM/s1600/Sfc.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><img border="0" height="400" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhgQpa4OuBfa9YB_2vMLc2iKJfeBM6E9BcwrbGzRmkWhogahZvC-eDZfdvl2GQw4SFFLoCMYoznG-yanYHUGSwnO6wCg8cEjTVERYOEY3CviigdLrA0MEclZeePWT03RU_-FF74D700sbM/s400/Sfc.jpg" width="398" /></a>This surface flow in combination with the winds in the middle and upper troposphere produce some interesting looking wind profiles tomorrow afternoon in Nebraska (and it seems the next afternoon in northern KS). These profiles (shown below on the forecast sounding and hodograph for North Platte Nebraska)would support rotating storms...although it could be that these storms, if they do occur, will be in the supercellular mode called "High Precipitation" (HP).<br />
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HP storms can be beasts...and the WRF-NAM model appears to generate one near North Platte tomorrow afternoon. They can also be tornadic, though usually too much precipitation wraps around the updraft to allow the storm to proceed through the supercell cascade to produce a tornado.<br />
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You can see our preliminary target shown as a red box. <br />
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We are also keeping our eye on the TX Panhandle, as conditions look reasonably good there too...but there is an awful lot of Convective Inhibition (a region of warm air through which lofting surface air parcels would need to be "forced" in order for them to become buoyant.<br />
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Beyond tomorrow, the evolution of the incoming western trough will have the final say in where we go. With its increased amplitude, this trough appears to be aiming much further south than the current SPC outlooks suggest.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUJ4taP0Mx6MbsEXqLawkiPj1Bg1dCGYrQce4b2YfqdGTELkaJFKF0kbVPR8cgB3qzWHn0H7twO3LHt_5YgyOM8XOuKGjK935sQ1Cy-Pg3Ty2P8YRZx6icUqtZyyc6NXKhYFJ4LYUyEt0/s1600/KLBF_21UTC.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="388" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgUJ4taP0Mx6MbsEXqLawkiPj1Bg1dCGYrQce4b2YfqdGTELkaJFKF0kbVPR8cgB3qzWHn0H7twO3LHt_5YgyOM8XOuKGjK935sQ1Cy-Pg3Ty2P8YRZx6icUqtZyyc6NXKhYFJ4LYUyEt0/s640/KLBF_21UTC.png" width="640" /></a></div>
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<br />John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-11288862949005507372013-05-10T15:17:00.000-07:002013-05-10T15:19:59.554-07:00Preliminary Outlook<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFtKESCTIYJBBh2waoCgGnONXh4g7MxegVZ8Xbp2YuzjySGTLgXVaalLdrTu7kLvqvusDp6tiPbnvaagyqNmWhEfxnLC4K7wNAnEHrrzcnzGgyerNxar1FU5DpN9e_Np7HMIfR5Hfm8uY/s1600/500mb.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" height="241" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjFtKESCTIYJBBh2waoCgGnONXh4g7MxegVZ8Xbp2YuzjySGTLgXVaalLdrTu7kLvqvusDp6tiPbnvaagyqNmWhEfxnLC4K7wNAnEHrrzcnzGgyerNxar1FU5DpN9e_Np7HMIfR5Hfm8uY/s320/500mb.jpg" width="320" /></span></a><span style="font-size: large;"><span style="text-align: left;"><br />Here's a preliminary look at things. I am using an ensemble approach to judge the probability of the patterns we are likely to encounter. This is about a week out. </span></span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;"><span style="text-align: left;">The ensemble approach involves looking at about 20 different forecasts that the model (in this case, the Global Ensemble Forecast System , which is basically the Global Forecast System). Small tweaks to the original observations are made to see how sensitive the model is to the initial conditions. </span><span style="text-align: left;">Beyond about 5 days, the average of these conditions is often a better to much better forecast than the model run with just the observations.</span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcoFVD3ox3jJQiFGKQMbsIkbEq1kxNFqV0FO0BDcCXhiVTc9AeOax69Djhq9KZbBOHmgW86-y0_bFoRSMdGTDCpV6VTfslGz5da0dmNo3oi6Gop3nQi6QILCmujJLbxAj644M-2OZr4yE/s1600/sfc.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjcoFVD3ox3jJQiFGKQMbsIkbEq1kxNFqV0FO0BDcCXhiVTc9AeOax69Djhq9KZbBOHmgW86-y0_bFoRSMdGTDCpV6VTfslGz5da0dmNo3oi6Gop3nQi6QILCmujJLbxAj644M-2OZr4yE/s320/sfc.jpg" width="303" /></span></a><span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">First, the model brings a weak to moderate trough into the west, with southwesterly flow impinging on the Plains starting about Thursday evening. The best flow occurs Saturday and Sunday afternoons. However, the direction of the flow is good with marginal wind speeds even Thursday and Friday afternoon in the western High Plains, if this pattern verifies.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6YNBNtxcsn-osonN7cxqMXcZCv35nJYoiCaZ9IzD37us5Q8v2i6xYhzlFNa7lQyGeOn2ZCbbwtGdquRVcjfvE1FWvfn0D4m8luqgJbghbAYACHzAoJi6i1bIrRppooSCoowrL2dubZaU/s1600/gefs-mnsprd_namer_228_cape.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: right; float: right; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-left: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6YNBNtxcsn-osonN7cxqMXcZCv35nJYoiCaZ9IzD37us5Q8v2i6xYhzlFNa7lQyGeOn2ZCbbwtGdquRVcjfvE1FWvfn0D4m8luqgJbghbAYACHzAoJi6i1bIrRppooSCoowrL2dubZaU/s320/gefs-mnsprd_namer_228_cape.gif" width="313" /></span></a><span style="font-size: large;"></span><br />
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<span style="font-size: large;">The surface pattern is shown on the next panel. I annotated it and added an isobar to make the pattern clearer. This forecast suggests a wave cyclone just east of the Rockies with a lee side/thermal trough extending southward, within which a dry line should be found. Somewhere near the KS/Nebrasksa border should be a warm front. South of that boundary should be a flow of fairly warm and moisture rich air.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyoMtgYe-7Wbu2QJizF8ypq_w1HiE-FA8rbUTuqCXMCnhSCM9-awZUNeZef8ZUMBQkl1pcEnTa7BHahw2od3l6wawbSC8tds7Hx0u2MhQ_QtKB6frCyS8UpVB89gLOo0OnC8e0XaQdYWE/s1600/gefs-mnsprd_namer_228_prob_cape_4000.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: large;"><img border="0" height="246" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgyoMtgYe-7Wbu2QJizF8ypq_w1HiE-FA8rbUTuqCXMCnhSCM9-awZUNeZef8ZUMBQkl1pcEnTa7BHahw2od3l6wawbSC8tds7Hx0u2MhQ_QtKB6frCyS8UpVB89gLOo0OnC8e0XaQdYWE/s320/gefs-mnsprd_namer_228_prob_cape_4000.gif" width="320" /></span></a><span style="font-size: large;">The final two panels are the ensemble mean sbCAPE and probability of CAPE > 4000 J/kg. Meteorologists looking at the previous chart would probably guess that there would be adequate CAPE, possibly a lot with this pattern.</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: large;">The bottom line, integrating all this information, is that this far in advance, the weekend of the 18-19-20 is looking possibly pretty active for severe weather in the west-</span></div>
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<br />John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-12337986765911353092013-05-08T09:04:00.001-07:002013-05-08T09:06:58.187-07:00Chase Trip 2013 -- May 16-May 26<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: justify;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivxpaS5mER05n1EQYdyLqS33tfxM3VS1wKqsDjntM22dLDYqc9TS3k4aDkZxePg4Pe-k76pK5WNVqnbFiIMY4_A6izD_buklaq05PLQRd0lOvfTmI5mGggDL_CWfL7ghntS3trcXrYq04/s1600/2013_annual_map_all.gif" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="285" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEivxpaS5mER05n1EQYdyLqS33tfxM3VS1wKqsDjntM22dLDYqc9TS3k4aDkZxePg4Pe-k76pK5WNVqnbFiIMY4_A6izD_buklaq05PLQRd0lOvfTmI5mGggDL_CWfL7ghntS3trcXrYq04/s400/2013_annual_map_all.gif" width="400" /></a>Thom and I are scheduled for a departure Thursday 16 May in the early afternoon. We can conceivably chase in eastern Colorado that day if the pattern is favorable. Or if a dramatic pattern is setting up for that day, we can get an earlier flight. </div>
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So far 2013 has been a fairly inactive year. While there has been severe weather across the southeastern quadrant of the U.S., it has been a year with unusually few tornadoes. </div>
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The pattern forecast for next week is not dramatic, and it looks like what opportunities for chasing storms there will be will set up in the central and northern Plains. </div>
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The widget that plotted our position stopped working last year. So I have fashioned my own. However, you'll have to click on the link for that on the right margin to generate a map that shows where we are when I have the GPS unit on.</div>
<br />John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5492283535452933538.post-72586399843574506992012-06-11T09:53:00.001-07:002012-06-11T09:53:49.510-07:00Panorama of Kingman Tornado #8 (right) with Tornado #9 Forming (down the flank on left)<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYSHPu9tB5H06bNqY0hzVXEGPHC9TARvQH2tbCI3R5mzDkBVoujDKoeJ2iNlneRefwfcDtTAxTOhFqIgjLJq6W545r2vjRIRQs5Nph0l2lKmsZnNqH7qjLlSCyxhf-77V4-6mdIrHQCHY/s1600/image001.jpeg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="199" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgYSHPu9tB5H06bNqY0hzVXEGPHC9TARvQH2tbCI3R5mzDkBVoujDKoeJ2iNlneRefwfcDtTAxTOhFqIgjLJq6W545r2vjRIRQs5Nph0l2lKmsZnNqH7qjLlSCyxhf-77V4-6mdIrHQCHY/s640/image001.jpeg" width="640" /></a>John Monteverdi and Thom Trimblehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01619917498436669077noreply@blogger.com0