6PM CDT update: we are definitely in moist flow up here in Guthrie. Unfortunately, the stratocumulus field is squashed. The inversion is holding, at least to this point. Models still suggest something happening between 7-8PM CDT....with sunset around 8:30 PM...not much time to observe a storm...and we do not chase at night._____________________________
A warm front/dry line/cold front triple point should move into the area west of Oklahoma City this afternoon. There is more than adequate shear for supercells. Here's our target.
Some of the issues include whether adequate deep moisture will get back into the target area if the triple point is there. The models are suggesting that convection should outbreak in the area of slightly southwest of Oklahoma City to Guthrie to Ponca City and slightly eastward in discrete cells at around 4PM local time.
We are currently (1:54 PM CDT) in Gutrhie, Oklahoma in Rick's Fine Chocolates and Coffee Shop. Besides the great coffee, there is a good wireless connection here.
