May 20, 2011

Preliminary Target for May 21--Southeastern Third of KS

Thom and I are considering options for tomorrow....and, I must say, I think the pattern looks a bit better tomorrow than the pattern we had today.

There is a wedge of high dew point temperatures and CAPE, with, according to the WRF-NAM, little CIN, from southeast Oklahoma through extreme eastern KS to the northeastern third of Kansas....underneath very decent 500 mb flow. In fact, the surface wind to 500 mb crossover is forecast to be much better in those areas than the best we had today. So good, that the forecast 0-3 km SREH values are very enticing...where they are coextensive with the better instability values.

I plotted forecast soundings and hodographs for that area, and there are some striking anticyclonic loops in the lowest 3 km over se KS and up through the Topeka area...and also down into se Oklahoma. The soundings have a very steep lapse rate in the EML which explains why the forecast sbCAPE values are more striking for those areas tomorrow than the same surface temps and dew points produced today in parts of KS.

I think we'll be rargeting the area east of a Topeka-Emporia-Tulsa arc tomorrow afternoon. I'd rather not go down to the tropical rainforested hills of se Oklahoma, but I will if the pattern resolves out better in the morning models and obs;  so that arc may spread south of Interstate 40.

Right now it's a go for us. The prospects seem much better in those areas tomorrow than anything we had today, and we saw interesting storm structure today.