May 21, 2013

May 21, 2013: North Central TX

Another Round of Supercells Expected Today:  Risk of Strong Tornadoes Again

Not much time to post as we expect early initiation.  We are currently near Gainesville TX and then are heading southwest to the area just east of Abilene.

The morning weather map shows the low pressure area having drifted southward into central TX overnight.   The setup is a bit different today as 500 mb winds (see graphic) have slackened just a bit.

However, there is still the tap of high dew point air coming into central TX.   The surface flow is a bit weaker than yesterday.   Yet forecast hodographs indicate wind shear favorable for supercells, although the window for tornadoes appears short.

An additional factor is an outflow boundary that is shifting southward out of the thunderstorms we just left in Ardmore.  That also might provide a focus if storms forming to the west cross it later today.  Unfortunately, the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex may be under the gun later today.