May 14, 2009

5/14/09: GFS Continues To Point to Northern/Central Plains

I've attached the 500 mb, surface pressure, and surface dew point forecasts for next Tuesday, which is similar, with slight modifications, to those for next Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. If the pattern verifies, we will be drifting northward from Boulder on Sunday to South Dakota.

The focus appears to be setting up for some place with a radius of 150 miles of Rapid City or so. That's conditioned on the model being correct, of course. The pattern is somewhat favorable, but highly contingent on dew points rising into the mid 50s to get high-based supercells. We'd really need much higher surface dew points to see more dramatic storms. But at least there is some possiblity for T-Th

The Ensembles still show a majority of members favoring the progression of a trough into the West Coast after Saturday. So that's our plan now.