May 15, 2009

5/15/09: Pattern Becomes More Murky

The models are still advertising two of the three ingredients in supercell production to be in place in the northern Plains starting about Monday or Tuesday. The one "missing" ingredient is boundary layer moisture.....which would appear with southerly or southeasterly flow at the surface usually....but NOT if the big cyclone development occurs down in the Gulf of Mexico.

The models "think" that a hurricane may form that way, which may actually take moisture headed for the northern Plains and shunt it southward into the circulation. We shall see...although it looks like that will occur.

Meanwhile, there still will be storms in the Dakotas, perhaps northwest Nebraska and eastern Wyoming and Montana starting around Monday, perhaps Tuesday, and that is we are likely to head after landing in Colorado and spending a day or so in Boulder.