May 16, 2009

5/16/09: Same issues/Same Target

We are in Denver, and plan to overnight in Boulder. The latest run of the medium range models still suggest that both deep layer and low level shear will be adequate for severe storms/supercells during the Tuesday-Thursday period in the region about 150 miles radius from Rapid City, South Dakota.

The largest issue remains the circulation in the Gulf of Mexico, which is taking Gulf air southeastward into a developing tropical system. Nevertheless, either locally produced, or imported moisture does make it northward through the Tuesday-Thursday period. I have posted the dew point field forecast for Wednesday afternoon. It does represent the most robust dew point field of the week, and it does suggest some hope for storms, possibly supercells, in the region of favorable shear.

Dew points would need to be higher in order for LCLs to be low enough to get tornadic storms, however, even if the dew point field verifies.