Flip-flopping Between Two Outlooks...

Still nearly 10 days out...so it's tough to get a read on what the models are trying to say...except there are two dominant solutions to the ensembles.   One shows a very ugly ridge, and the other showing the same ridge, but with a nice breakthrough across the Plains.

The ensemble mean for the period is looking about halfway between because of a split in the solutions about half of them showing the northern solution and the other half the breakthrough.  

Here's an example of the breakthrough solution for midweek...the week after next.  That would be a very good pattern.