May 22, 2012

May 22 Preliminary Target: e OK/ne TX Panhandles/sw KS

This morning's models and the observations show that the NAM's 0000 UTC dew point field forecast for this afternoon was way overdone in Nebraska...but underdone in western KS into the central OK Panhandle, perhaps a bit further south.  I like the forecast soundings and hodographs for the eastern OK Panhandle and sw KS this afternoon.   With the south winds in combination with WNW flow of 25 knots, 0-6 km AGL shear is about 40 knots over that area, suggesting some super cells in the area, albeit high based, particularly on the western margin of the CAPE field.  The low level shear is not good, however.   

What we can hope for is some mesoscale forcing...for example a surge of the dryline, already suggested by the southwesterly wind push across ne NM and se CO.

With the forecast hodographs, the right movers might be moving hardlly at all relative to the ground, or in "odd" directions, like westward or northwestward.  The inflow area will be on the northwest side of such cells.   But that's if the forecast hodographs verify.