May 13, 2012

More on Friday/Saturday/Sunday Outlook, 18-20 May 2012

The models have settled on some decent chase opportunities next weekend, even on the day that we arrive, in South Dakota on Friday.  In fact, northwest South Dakota on Friday and southeast South Dakota on Saturday, perhaps back west to sw Nebraska on Sunday.  Too early to get too hot and bothered about the potential, since some runs of the models back off.

But I do present the hodograph for a location in north-central South Dakota Friday evening.   This hodograph develops from the late afternoon into the early this "highly tornadic" wind profile.  But for the threat to materialize, storms have to develop earlier in  the day and stay existent long enough to take advantage of the wind profile.  

Right now it does appear that storms will fire in western South Dakota and southwestern North Dakota.  The former is about a 450 mile drive from Denver, where we arrive at approximately 10:30AM.