May 19, 2012

On to southcentral KS

May 19, 2012:  Meteorological Discussion

We're still thinking Pratt, but there is a potential for a target across the border in Oklahoma that will also be reachable.. The best crossover of sfc and 500 mb winds is forecast to be from ICT to Pratt and down into Oklahoma.   Frankly, none of the hodographs I plotted are screaming "come to me".  All of them have adequate deep layer shear, but the low levels are anemic everywhere.  The 0-1 km shear forecast by the WRF-NAM is at best, weak in that area.  

Yet, the WRF-NAM forecasts a small sub synoptic low to form near Hill City, KS at 2200 UTC so maybe that will materialize and both back and accelerate the low level flow.

Anyway, we overnighted in Hays and ran into the College of Dupage storm intercept/research team, led by Paul Sirvatka and Victor Gensini  this morning....all the students diligently doing sub synoptic was great to see.

[Addendum:  another target is along the Nebraska-Kansas border north of Concordia.   I just like the storm motions and storm relative flow projected for further south.]